I'm reminded of the theory of Cliodynamics (Peter Turchin) where one Elite holds power for several decades until it loses it's grasp on society, and then society undergoes a period of chaos until a new Elite emerges. One of the reasons that the Old Elite loses its grasp is the overproduction of Elite children as time wears on. All these bright eyed young things want Elite jobs/occupations/professions but there are not enough to satisfy their demand, so chaos kicks off in the scramble.
Similarly there's the theory of Institutionalism The institutionalist theory focuses on the impact of the institutions over the human behaviour and the behavioural outcomes they generate. The main actor of the institutionalist theory, the institutions, is defined as a set of formal and informal rules that guide the behaviour of its members. Perhaps all the Institutions are a natural magnet for all the Elite children seeking 'suitable' jobs?
And perhaps as the Old Elite decays and their children occupy the Institutions, the Elite expectations of acceptable behaviour wander away from 'regular life' in an increasingly Kafka-esque way.
Something new has to arise, and yes, war has often been the midwife to the new social order. There's no guarantee that victory will deliver an improvement over the last social order, but 'something has to give'.
I would like to think, would hope to think, that instead of a new danger-filled World War some less destructive solution to replacing the old Elite is available. I do not believe that the political ideas of 'de-growth' or 'Net Zero' offer a pleasant method - too much would be given up for the new Elites (and hence everybody else) to find recognition.
My suggestion is that we launch the idea of 'de-cluttering' Government. After 70 or so years of Government there must be plenty of over-staffed and unnecessary 'institutions'; it is in the nature of institutions to swell their size and ambit. So set all the would-be Elite the task of thinning things out. That will give them a 'noble' task and recognition without sending their minions to the battlefield.
Governments in the Western World appear to be ripe for such a re-appraisal. We just have to persuade them that lording it over ashes and rubble is no longer acceptable.
The optimistic scenario is things get worse for say 3-5 years and this forces a crisis, out of which emerges something better. This has happened many times before of course.
Speculations here have become metaphysical. I feel some resonance with the idea of the will to incorporation, an all-devouring instinct that we've discussed before. 'If only we were all alike in our beliefs, in acknowledging the one true Truth' seems to be the prevailing mood. There are so many creative ways by which we reach this end: all forms of purging, including war, are on the table. No doubt, we are already in the midst of a war of ideas, giving rise to all manner of extremist stances, none of which are appealing. Unfortunately, what gets lost in the tussle are the generally shared values, but perhaps most importantly, the deeper questions about how we live, especially the warping of social behaviour in the industrialist dispensation, which is making folks confused and miserable. I think the societal restless we're seeing has everything to do with that, and yet not many are really questioning this specific bottom line. For instance, job creation is thought to be a basic political and social good... but what kind of jobs? If we're talking about repetitive, unfulfilling work, or meaningless, empty work, that's just not enough. Add tons of money to some of those truly enervating, meaningless jobs and you get the sort of restlessness and feelings of end times so many are experiencing without knowing why. The death wish sets in. Folks become desperate, seeking meaning, excitement, belonging... all things that the industrialist dispensation robs us of.
My gut feeling is that war is not actually in our true nature, and that the idea that we are inevitably forced into these situations is something certain powers want us to believe because that's how they stay in control. We are definitely in a period of choosing, but it's between this war mentality that we've been kidded into thinking is who we are, and something more true to humanity on this planet. I'm so not interested in the war path and being told it's inevitable.
That choice itself is one that is being forced. And I would agree with your choice, as I think would most people. That's why the War can be thought of as (touch wood) metaphorical.
I agree, Helen. A friend passed along this article on the role played by drugs in war: https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2016/11/25/a-brief-history-of-war-and-drugs-from-vikings-to-nazis. This is a topic we don't examine enough. I'm not sure, David, how much of a secret it is all over town... but I'm aware of a serious problem with cocaine and related substances in the judiciary and political circles, not to mention the academy. It's the sort of thing going on right under our noses (pardon the pun), without anyone really remarking how much this has to do with how things are falling apart. If there's going to be a tipping point into war, it may very well emerge from this problem. Feeling 'godlike' and the desire to be a god and impose one's will at that level has much to do with delusions arising from this type of drug use.
Mr Harper, "de-cluttering Government" is beautiful, seductive, but not apt. It invokes Mary Poppins "popping in" from above, to fix things by magic. Even then, she would not de-clutter Government itself, only the bureaucratic instruments of governing. Our bureaux are not ideal, but they are what people (think they) want. Hercules found that after he had cleared the Augean stables, the cattle would come shuffling back and, if I may extend the analogy, still full of shit. To deal with that, he had to tear down walls. If we want to de-clutter lastingly, we have to change what people want. To do that, we must change people. Which, to me, sounds like a bottom-up job if ever there was one.
A good analogy - but cut down the number of horses and keep on top of cleaning the stables and the *size* of the problem is much reduced. It will be an ongoing task, of course, and Governments are simply uninterested in ongoing tasks and routine maintenance (not politically fulfilling). So I guess it's up to the electorate to wield a simple idea like 'decluttering' to keep politicians 'honest'.
Great use of Tolkien here, David. I have a quibble (don't I always...) in that I don't think that we are facing a clash of only two positions. However, because the tools for political warfare end up in most places in one of two hands, this distinction tends not to matter in practice.
This occurred to me as well - I think you’re possibly right, although I have a tendency to reduce things to binaries (reading too much Oakeshott and McGilchrist).
I'm going to smush several ideas into one...
I'm reminded of the theory of Cliodynamics (Peter Turchin) where one Elite holds power for several decades until it loses it's grasp on society, and then society undergoes a period of chaos until a new Elite emerges. One of the reasons that the Old Elite loses its grasp is the overproduction of Elite children as time wears on. All these bright eyed young things want Elite jobs/occupations/professions but there are not enough to satisfy their demand, so chaos kicks off in the scramble.
Similarly there's the theory of Institutionalism The institutionalist theory focuses on the impact of the institutions over the human behaviour and the behavioural outcomes they generate. The main actor of the institutionalist theory, the institutions, is defined as a set of formal and informal rules that guide the behaviour of its members. Perhaps all the Institutions are a natural magnet for all the Elite children seeking 'suitable' jobs?
And perhaps as the Old Elite decays and their children occupy the Institutions, the Elite expectations of acceptable behaviour wander away from 'regular life' in an increasingly Kafka-esque way.
Something new has to arise, and yes, war has often been the midwife to the new social order. There's no guarantee that victory will deliver an improvement over the last social order, but 'something has to give'.
I would like to think, would hope to think, that instead of a new danger-filled World War some less destructive solution to replacing the old Elite is available. I do not believe that the political ideas of 'de-growth' or 'Net Zero' offer a pleasant method - too much would be given up for the new Elites (and hence everybody else) to find recognition.
My suggestion is that we launch the idea of 'de-cluttering' Government. After 70 or so years of Government there must be plenty of over-staffed and unnecessary 'institutions'; it is in the nature of institutions to swell their size and ambit. So set all the would-be Elite the task of thinning things out. That will give them a 'noble' task and recognition without sending their minions to the battlefield.
Governments in the Western World appear to be ripe for such a re-appraisal. We just have to persuade them that lording it over ashes and rubble is no longer acceptable.
The optimistic scenario is things get worse for say 3-5 years and this forces a crisis, out of which emerges something better. This has happened many times before of course.
Speculations here have become metaphysical. I feel some resonance with the idea of the will to incorporation, an all-devouring instinct that we've discussed before. 'If only we were all alike in our beliefs, in acknowledging the one true Truth' seems to be the prevailing mood. There are so many creative ways by which we reach this end: all forms of purging, including war, are on the table. No doubt, we are already in the midst of a war of ideas, giving rise to all manner of extremist stances, none of which are appealing. Unfortunately, what gets lost in the tussle are the generally shared values, but perhaps most importantly, the deeper questions about how we live, especially the warping of social behaviour in the industrialist dispensation, which is making folks confused and miserable. I think the societal restless we're seeing has everything to do with that, and yet not many are really questioning this specific bottom line. For instance, job creation is thought to be a basic political and social good... but what kind of jobs? If we're talking about repetitive, unfulfilling work, or meaningless, empty work, that's just not enough. Add tons of money to some of those truly enervating, meaningless jobs and you get the sort of restlessness and feelings of end times so many are experiencing without knowing why. The death wish sets in. Folks become desperate, seeking meaning, excitement, belonging... all things that the industrialist dispensation robs us of.
My gut feeling is that war is not actually in our true nature, and that the idea that we are inevitably forced into these situations is something certain powers want us to believe because that's how they stay in control. We are definitely in a period of choosing, but it's between this war mentality that we've been kidded into thinking is who we are, and something more true to humanity on this planet. I'm so not interested in the war path and being told it's inevitable.
That choice itself is one that is being forced. And I would agree with your choice, as I think would most people. That's why the War can be thought of as (touch wood) metaphorical.
I agree, Helen. A friend passed along this article on the role played by drugs in war: https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2016/11/25/a-brief-history-of-war-and-drugs-from-vikings-to-nazis. This is a topic we don't examine enough. I'm not sure, David, how much of a secret it is all over town... but I'm aware of a serious problem with cocaine and related substances in the judiciary and political circles, not to mention the academy. It's the sort of thing going on right under our noses (pardon the pun), without anyone really remarking how much this has to do with how things are falling apart. If there's going to be a tipping point into war, it may very well emerge from this problem. Feeling 'godlike' and the desire to be a god and impose one's will at that level has much to do with delusions arising from this type of drug use.
Mr Harper, "de-cluttering Government" is beautiful, seductive, but not apt. It invokes Mary Poppins "popping in" from above, to fix things by magic. Even then, she would not de-clutter Government itself, only the bureaucratic instruments of governing. Our bureaux are not ideal, but they are what people (think they) want. Hercules found that after he had cleared the Augean stables, the cattle would come shuffling back and, if I may extend the analogy, still full of shit. To deal with that, he had to tear down walls. If we want to de-clutter lastingly, we have to change what people want. To do that, we must change people. Which, to me, sounds like a bottom-up job if ever there was one.
A good analogy - but cut down the number of horses and keep on top of cleaning the stables and the *size* of the problem is much reduced. It will be an ongoing task, of course, and Governments are simply uninterested in ongoing tasks and routine maintenance (not politically fulfilling). So I guess it's up to the electorate to wield a simple idea like 'decluttering' to keep politicians 'honest'.
Great use of Tolkien here, David. I have a quibble (don't I always...) in that I don't think that we are facing a clash of only two positions. However, because the tools for political warfare end up in most places in one of two hands, this distinction tends not to matter in practice.
This occurred to me as well - I think you’re possibly right, although I have a tendency to reduce things to binaries (reading too much Oakeshott and McGilchrist).
Binary thinking is endemic to human minds, alas. Although it certainly has its purposes! 🙂
Isn't Tolkien a bore?
Sounds like the fourth turning
I note ‘Uncibal’ is a Warren Zevon fan.
Yes, he was considerably more popular there than in our world.